Cameron - Getting ready to govern

David Cameron made a major U-turn this week after the Czech Prime Minister signed up to the Lisbon Treaty. He found himself in the position of having promised a referendum on a treaty that had already been ratified by the whole of Europe. This referendum is no longer happening.

The fact that Cameron made that promise in the first place is a sign that the Conservatives are still divided over Europe. Surely he would have known that such a promise was unrealistic and was only made as a way of uniting the Euro-sceptic majority of the Conservative party behind him.

Now that Cameron is preparing his party to govern he has to adopt a more realistic approach as opposed to a political points scoring one. This could be sticky for him.

He must realise that Britain’s future relies on a positive relationship with Europe whilst the Conservatives future might rely on a coherent European policy. At the moment the two seem mutually contradictory and there is no doubt that this is an own goal for the Conservatives.

This episode suggests that although the Conservatives seem united on the outside, a few more cracks could well emerge in the lead up to the election as the party gets ready to govern.

With Blair comes Campbell?

Alistair Campbell popped up in the Financial Times today with a letter in which he criticised George Osbourne for being more interested in short term political tactics than long term economic policy.

In the letter Campbell says:

“His initiative on curbing bankers’ bonuses, which fell apart on minimal scrutiny, is but the latest to draw fire from City and business leaders. It was attacked not for being tough, but because it was not thought through.

He suffered a similar credibility hit a few weeks ago when brandishing documents he claimed to have been leaked, which in truth had been published at the time of the last Budget. The media mini-frenzy was a short-term tactical gain at the expense of strategic credibility. Likewise the constantly changing figures on savings from his welfare reform proposals do little to enhance his standing.

All these mistakes reveal a trend, which will become a problem during the heat of a campaign, when his party’s positions on the handling of the economic crisis may come under greater scrutiny than they did at the time.”

Although it seems obvious, what Campbell has done here is identify a recurring weakness in one of the top Tory politicians based on solid examples. It is this sort of rational, well thought out argument that the Labour party could do with in the lead up to the election, and this is seemingly not going unnoticed.

The website, PoliticsHome today ran a survey within political circles on whether Brown would be well advised to bring Campbell formally back into the government for the election. And the answer was yes.

The site said: “Overall, fifty nine per cent of the Phi100 - a politically balanced panel comprising MPs and peers, party strategists, media commentators and executives, think tank directors and academics – think that Brown should bring Campbell back into the fold. “

In truth, this probably wouldn’t be a good idea as with Campbell comes a lot of baggage that might make him an easy target for the Tories. But it is clear that, like Blair, Campbell has the potential to play a significant but informal role as the election draws closer.

Blair right for EU president

Today David Miliband wrote in the Times that Britain is a big player in Europe because our role “magnifies the power of our ideas, which strengthens our clout in Washington, Beijing and Moscow.”

Miliband is right in the sense that the world is changing fast and for Britain to have influence in it, she needs to rely on more than a colonial heritage. Foreign policy debate should focus on how Britain can maintain this influence, rather than living in the past with Britain seen as a major independent player.

This is why Tony Blair becoming president of the EU is an opportunity for Britain. The great powers of the future are the USA, China and even Russia and India in the longer term. If Britain is to continue to have influence on the world stage then it will be largely through Europe and a strong European leader, respected globally and with the power to work with and influence other global decision makers.

In his Times piece, Miliband writes that four factors now underpin Britain’s influence on a world stage:

“Britain is a leading contributor of people and money in tackling the great challenges of the world…

British ideas give us influence…

Our values set a high standard…

Britain is at the heart of a unique web of international networks.”


Rejection of the Lisbon Treaty is based on an outdated argument that Britain can still punch her weight independently because of the power she has held in the past. It is time that we got with the times, accepted that our foreign policy future lies largely with Europe and our role in other international organisations and started making the most of our leadership through the European machinery. Tony Blair as EU president would be a good start.

BBC right on BNP’s inclusion on Question Time

For the past week I have watched in disbelief at the outrage politicians and parts of the general public have show at the BBC’s decision to invite Nick Griffin onto Question Time.

As much as the majority of rational minded people might hate it, the British National Party are now a legitimate part of British democracy after winning two European Parliament seats and clocking up a million votes.

What comes with this place in British democracy is space on the political agenda such as party political broadcasts, televised interviews and sporadic appearances on Question Time as a minor party.

By silencing them because we disagree with their abhorrent views undermines our democracy. The question for our democracy over the past week shouldn’t have been

‘Should the BNP be allowed on Question Time?,’ but,

‘How have we got to a state of affairs that means the BNP are on Question Time?’

The fear factor
Mainstream politicians are scared of the answer to this question – this is why Peter Hain was so against their involvement and Jack Straw couldn’t answer directly if it was Labour’s immigration policy that had led to increased support of the BNP.

Mainstream society is afraid of approaching the question of why people would support this implicitly racist party and afraid that if the BNP are heard, more people will turn to their way of thinking.

But based on the performance of Nick Griffin on Question Time, I have faith in the power of the argument that their policies are politically and ethically wrong. The way to beat them is not by cutting off their oxygen of publicity, but giving them the oxygen that they are entitled to until they eventually beat themselves.

Exposed
A story in the Observer today was headlined, ‘BNP supporters attack Griffin over poor Question Time performance.’ In it Lee Barnes, the BNP’s legal officer is quoted as criticising Griffin’s performance. The story said:

“He (Lee Barnes) accused his party’s leader of “failing to press the attack” on the “ethnic middle class” for “taking up the best jobs while still playing the bogus race card for every opportunity.””

This demonstrates the core problem for Nick Griffin – he is trying to describe far right policies in moderate terms. Any sort of analysis will undo this in a way that is not satisfactory to the far right or to people attracted away from mainstream politics by Griffin’s more moderate rhetoric.

He simply can not maintain that Britain should go back to a 99% white population at the same time as saying second and third generation immigrants can stay in the country if they contribute to society.

Underneath the slogans and soundbites is a world of contradiction, and once exposed through means such as Question Time the BNP’s stay in mainstream politics will be short. We should believe in the power of our democracy and the values that underpin this country regardless of the difficulties they currently face.

Blair is back...apparently

Tony Blair will come back to frontline politics to campaign for the Labour party in the run up to the election, according to a story just published by timesonline.

The story says:

"Downing Street figures expect the former Prime Minister to be asked to campaign in marginal seats where his appeal to “aspirational voters”, those whom Gordon Brown has struggled to reach, will matter most"

...

"A source close to Mr Blair confirmed that discussions had taken place about what he might do in the election. “My guess is that he will concentrate on the C1s and C2s — ‘Basildon Man’ and ‘Worcester Woman’. That’s what he’s best at.”

It's been a bizarre if not successful couple of days for Labour. First, Lord Mandelson, formerly the most unpopular man in the Labour party and twice asked to resign by the government, has made the most popular speech at the Labour party conference and now Tony Blair who left Downing Street under a black cloud is being reeled in to drum up popular support.

Part of me, the same part that smiles when I see Oasis play Cigarettes and Alcohol, is pleased to see a return of things that represent New Labour’s better days. But the other part of me, the part that realises seeing Oasis in 2009 is not quite the same also realises that constant talk of change and fight conflicts with the same people who sat in a café plotting New Labour 15 years ago still firmly at the healm.

This change of events shows one thing though - peoples popularity is always relative to the crowd they hang out in and David Cameron is not as close to Basildon Man and Worcester Woman as Tony Blair was in his pomp. Still with Labour scoring in the mid-twenties in most opinion polls they have a long way to go.